Bloomberg BNA's Pension & Benefits Daily has posted a great summary of the issues and the stakes leading up to Monday's all-important Supreme Court hearing. We can't really improve upon it; it's required reading.
As the article states, the questions asked in oral argument should give us some idea of the court's thinking in the case. If we are lucky, the main focus will be on the language in the ERISA statute, as it was in all three appellate cases (which all three hospital organizations lost). As we surmised previously, the court will still have an even number of members when the case goes before it. A 4-4 split ruling is possible but "unlikely," as one ERISA attorney opines in the article. Such a decision would be a win for plan members in the three cases, since the appellate rulings would stand, but it would not provide the definitive guidance — one way or the other — sought by the appellees on behalf of all church-affiliated plan sponsors, and which the court likely wants to provide. Stay tuned.